Since starting Nordic in 2006, there have been many events that I could say have made seeing the future difficult. While 2008’s financial crisis was a huge issue for a lot of folks, I was still in early growth mode and plowed through without too much trouble. The 2010’s were mostly calm until we saw the first wave of tariffs in 2018. This coincided with a major Intel chip shortage hit as people rushed to upgrade their Windows 7 computers for Windows 10 ones. We suddenly had to pivot our product line to use whatever chips we could get our hands on. I found a small GPU and started using CPUs without integrated graphics as they were fairly plentiful. There was a shock there, but we navigated it.

Then came the pandemic in 2020. Like everyone in early 2020, we had no idea what was going to happen, but we did have some guidance. The talk from DC and Raleigh was tough about staying home, and eventually that changed from a recommendation to a requirement. We were able to plan ahead for the day that North Carolina shut down, and were able to work effectively from home, as were our clients. We kept our overhead low and came out of the other end in a better place. The things I didn’t see were supplies drying up so quickly and the demand for laptops skyrocketing as high as it did, and in hindsight I would’ve managed it better.

The past 3-4 years have been easier for me to forecast. Sure, there have been difficult transitions with staff that we have had to navigate, but in general the world around us was stable. Prices were easy to forecast, we had really good ideas on how much inventory to keep in stock, and we were able to see 3-6 months in advance accurately. This year is turning out to be very different though.

If you read interviews with CEOs of any technology company, you’ll hear that they are basically in a “wait and see” mode. This is due to the uncertainty that we are all feeling. All major changes to their businesses are on hold until some light emerges to show us where we will be in the next quarter. During their quarterly calls, they all say that their next quarter forecasts are uncertain. Intel’s CFO said “The very fluid trade policies in the U.S. and beyond, as well as regulatory risks, have increased the chance of an economic slowdown with the probability of a recession growing… This makes it more difficult to forecast how we will perform for the quarter and for the year.”

I’ve also been watching interviews lately with smaller companies in my space, like CyberPower, Corsair, Hyte, and others. The predictions are that the fluidity in our policies will even out in the next 2-3 months, and we will be able to start planning again. But some companies are going further. Hyte has stopped shipments of new products to the US and is focusing on other countries now. Louis Rossmann has said that he will not purchase any more products to sell until tariffs become legislated again but will double down on his repair business instead. Cooler Master said they already have so much money tied up in products that are being manufactured, they’re just hoping to weather the storm.

So, what will Nordic do? Well, we are lucky to have a diverse business with multiple revenue streams. I don’t see much effect that this economy will have on our support business or subscription sales. It’s really whether our product sales will continue to grow or if we will have to make some changes in the PC business. For now, like most business owners and CEOs, it’s a “wait and see” game, but try to be prepared for anything.

-Nate